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Censorship or media crime?
Schildbügerstreich? Media Crime? Or large scale wage dumping? The fact is, if the issue of professional defensiveness was not so serious and there were not so many injured victims, the story would be almost funny. Because all, really all, have participated: associations, employment agency and the oh so critical media at the Fachkräfte-Mangel-Chor.
And now that: In a weekly report of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) speaks labor market researcher Karl Brenke, of which I by the many discussion contributions on Best of HR – Berufebilder.de® have been convinced for some time (or at least that it can not be as serious as many do ..)
The interview with the well-known US sociologist Richard Sennett was just fitting: in an interview with WN-TV he explained the negative effects short-term contracts have on employees and the productivity of a company and how politics would shape our working world in the future.
And certainly not as it is claimed again and again that we have a shortage of skilled workers in Germany, for example, the Association of German Engineers (VDI) or the Federal Employment Agency. On the contrary, Karl Brenke even fears an impending lack of skilled workers for some areas. But how does that fit in with the General Skilled Labor Deficiency Hysteria?
The story came to a head when Spiegel Online reported last Tuesday on a recent DIW study: In a yesterday's weekly report (downloadable free of charge as PDF), Karl Brenke, Scientific Officer on the Board of DIW Berlin, explains why he is currently does not believe in a shortage of skilled workers: "We can not rule out that we will have a shortage of skilled workers in some industries. There are currently only a few areas where there is a shortage of skilled workers. This is most likely the case with the doctors. "
A media crime
The study should, so it was at Spiegel Online, actually appear on Tuesday. But did not do it. When asked by the press office, I learned that it should be late. Reason: Because Brenke not only contradicts the generally prevailing opinion of the shortage of skilled workers, but also in particular his boss, the DIW President Klaus Zimmermann, the study had to be redone quickly again - or supplemented, as it was said at the press office of the DIW.
What was new was obviously the statement that Brenke's theses only refer to the coming 3-5 years. Apart from that, the forecasts usually go wrong anyway, you don't take a long-term future oracle anyway - right? “A lot went wrong”, the press lady from DIW also knew to report, at which after the SPONArticle by Tuesday the phones were no longer idle. Mr. Zimmermann would probably have preferred to withdraw the study, which was no longer possible. Instead, you could only put them into perspective.
Do not trust statistics that you did not fake yourself!
And what's in it now? Well, Karl Brenke has eagerly combined all sorts of figures and his theses have been well founded. The possible occupational heat is justified with several statistical values. At the same time, Benke's investigations of the Institute for German Economics are debatable as questionable. And one thing, Brenke also makes clear at the same time: There are so far no scientific procedures that represent the entire labor market and thus could make a definitive statement about the entire economic sector.
For example, there is a lack of current, up-to-date data on the development of wages in individual professions; there are figures only on charges in individual groups of specialists. And the figures for the vacancies as well as for the unemployed contain only the figures of the Federal Agency for Labor - which is not reported there, does not appear in the statistics. And not everything that is reported as a vacancy is really free (eg for changers). All factors that make every statistic quickly imprecise.
In addition, according to Brenke, university graduates and specialists with in-company training must be differentiated. In the latter case, it could actually come at some point to a shortage - if one does not bring the young people to study what is needed in the labor market. Again such an oracle ...
Why there is no professional defenses!
But what is really so explosive in the study? For example, wages for skilled workers had hardly risen, as would be the case with bottlenecks, and they have not developed better than those of other employees since 2009. The number of students and graduates has been rising since 2007.
The most important factor, however, is that the number of unemployed is higher than the number of vacancies, according to the Federal Agency for Employment and Calculations of DIW. Brenke sees a significant bottleneck only among the vulcanists, electrical installers and physicians.
... they are then times away ...
And the latter stupidly prefer to move to Scandinavia, although the medical education is so expensive: Brenke notes: "Germany subsidizes other countries!"
By the way, not only: Karen, the whole discussion on Best of HR – Berufebilder.de® and my kindly whiteness still draws my attention to every publication on the topic, has also emigrated to Sweden: "I have not regretted my decision to turn my back on Germany for one minute and would do it again."
Misunderstanding or manipulation?
But where does the discrepancy between the previous tonality and this study come from? Behind the scenes, those affected suspect manipulation by the employers' side, with the aim of squeezing wages through a large selection of well-trained, local, flexible workers and, on the other hand, being able to dispose of older engineers.
That sounds logical, but as long as I don't have the evidence, I'd rather assume general ignorance, misjudgments and statistical inaccuracies on all sides: After all, German companies are still spending a lot of money on the Internet, at career fairs or elsewhere to interest well-educated young people for a job at their company. And they wouldn't do that when they didn't need people - right?
A rogue who thinks evil
This is how Bernd Schmitz, Head of University Marketing at Bayer AG in Leverkusen, writes Best of HR – Berufebilder.de®: "I can say for Bayer that we are constantly hiring new employees - 2009 alone through 300 academics. A large proportion are graduates with an engineering degree. "However, Schmitz admits:" Personally, I would only speak of a lack if open vacancies can not be filled within a reasonable time. At Bayer, we have been able to fill all available vacancies with new employees. "
Anyone who wanted to think bad, could now say that, of course, the pure image of various companies - practically advertising. And that the tactic serves to skim off the cream from a large pool of graduates later cheap. But maybe you're just really scared, later down without standing there?
"We are not that desperate!"
What in the discussion in the blog but also became clear: One or the other is inclined to take the word professional deficit literally. Failure to do so does not mean that companies are so desperate that they hire everyone: you can still see whether professional qualifications, specialization and personal factors, such as mobility or teamwork, are right!
Mechanical engineer Marcus, who graduated from 2009 in November and then went on a job search until August, was forced to do so. After 2010 applications and 50 unsuccessful job interviews, he writes: "Mostly, the cancellation was justified by the fact that my qualifications do not quite meet the requirements. Well, I have completed my studies with 4, but I also have a technical education and I completed my practical semester abroad. "
Meanwhile, he emigrated - to Switzerland, where it worked with only two applications. Are German companies too stupid to recognize good people?
What can I do?
The fact is that many employers, however, prefer to go further than unsuccessful candidates - as Birgitt Dondorff rather scientifically demonstrated in this subject, and how this computer scientist reports, who would rather remain anonymous:
"We are desperately looking for software developers in our company in the Rhine-Main area. But even with us, most applicants are rejected. Applicants must have practical experience in the programming languages and operating systems we use and speak English very well. You should also have knowledge of the stock market environment. We are so under pressure that we can hardly incorporate new people and it is therefore not possible to hire newcomers. However, we definitely stop people about 50. Often there is also a lack of interpersonal communication. Some people we just can not imagine in our teams. If it turns out that a new employee does not bring the service, he will be dismissed without further ado. "
The shortage of skilled workers in Germany could end badly in the long run: more and more new students studying with high expectations on the labor market, but not finding a job and then moving away. Bad investment for the state - also because, for example, money is invested in surplus subjects, while being saved at another point.
So maybe it's time to discuss something different about this topic?
Note, thanks and update
Although this is a serious topic, I have opted for a semi-ironic view - I hope you understand that.
Anyway, thank you to the well above 100 commentators who have been contributing to this topic for months with their testimonials, comments and links to more information. On monday my article will appear on RP-ONLINE. This is really crowdsourcing!
Update: The comments are of course as always with many more information, links and hints. Just join in the discussion!
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