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Text comes from the book: “Raw materials the most attractive market in the world. How everyone can benefit from oil, coffee and the like ”(2016) Wall Street is also just a street. Lessons from an investment rebel ”(2013), published by Münchener Verlagsgruppe (MVG), reprinted with the kind permission of the publisher.

Here writes for you:

Jim Rogers is an American hedge fund manager and writer who grew up in Demopolis, Alabama. After attending college in Alabama, he studied history, philosophy and economics at Yale University and Oxford University. In 1966 he took part in the Boat Race. Rogers worked for several international corporations on Wall Street. After returning from Oxford, he joined the army. He then returned to Dominick and Dominick on Wall Street, where he had already worked once after college. He finally met George Soros at Arnhold & S. Bleichroeder and founded the hedge fund Quantum Fund with him in 1970. In 1980, Rogers retired from managing the fund. Then he became a guestprofessor at Columbia University, circumnavigated the world twice and wrote books. In 1998 he launched the Rogers International Commodity Index (RICI). When weighting the index members, the commodity prices are taken into account in people's everyday lives. Rogers is married and has two daughters.

Earning money with raw materials: Investments Stock market and the power of things

The next hot thing is - things. A new bull market is underway and it is taking place in commodities.

Raw materials are omnipresent

It's about "commodities", "materials", "hard assets" and "tangible things" that are not only in your life, but in the life of every person in the world
play an essential role. When you go to the supermarket or
When you go to the mall, you find yourself in the midst of raw materials that are traded around the world. In your car or truck, you are also of briskly traded raw materials
surround. Without the futures markets, where raw material prices are determined and regulated, things that we all need to live would be rare and often too expensive. These essentials include oil, natural gas, wheat, corn, cotton, soybeans,
Aluminum, copper, silver, gold, cattle, pigs, pork bellies, sugar, coffee, cocoa, rice, wool, rubber, lumber and
the about 80 other things listed in the Trader's Bible
are - in the Commodity Research Yearbook.

Commodities are so ubiquitous that one can think of my opinion
after failing to successfully invest in stocks, bonds or foreign exchange if one does not understand the commodity markets. One must
understand them, even if you just want to invest in stocks and bonds. Commodities belong in every really well diversified depot. With a commodity investment, you can stand up to a bear market, runaway inflation and even a serious one
Securing the economic crisis. Commodities are not the “risky business” they are often referred to as. I think,
that commodity investments in the next ten years will be enormous
Will offer opportunities.
For most investors, commodities trading is a mysterious land full of fabulous dragons.

Learn more about raw materials

Lots of smart and good
informed people don't know anything about raw materials. For that they know
the P / E ratios of large and small stocks, study the balance sheets of
High-tech and biotech companies, from semiconductor manufacturers
and small banks in the southern states. These self-proclaimed “seasoned investors” track bond prices and yields more closely than baseball results and may even have an eye on the euro, the yen, the dollar and the Swiss
Francs. If they do know something, it is mostly second- or third-hand information that they misunderstood
and which usually contain a cautionary story about a brother-in-law who had soybean speculation
lost his last shirt. When an investor in front of commodities
flinches, he misses incredible opportunities - similar
like Americans who never travel abroad because they are there neither
Know and fear language still customs, therefore humiliated
or being cheated on.

You cannot ignore an entire market sector -
at least not if you really want to be considered an “intelligent investor”. When you have a friend who is strong on the stock market
is committed and in the 90s never even thought of
to buy a technology stock that did not take notice
what in the world of Microsoft, Cisco, Amazon, and eBay even
IBM went on, you will find its behavior for sure
unusual. And yet, most investors in the commodities sector have behaved in exactly the same way.
One reason for the good development of companies and
Stocks in the 80s and 90s was that commodities were in
found a bear market: low commodity prices took everyone
Cost and margin pressure from those companies that need raw materials for their activities.

When does the bubble burst?

Anyone who believed that the commodities bear market in the late
The 90s also saw the end of the bull market
come. The commentators on CNBC were still beaming at the time
all over my face and advised to get more dotcom shares too
buy - while the smart investors left the market and
turned to raw materials. You could see that soaring costs would soon weigh on profits - and that
stock prices would follow profits.
We're not talking about trifles here. The commodity market is
the largest market in the world - if you disregard the securities trading centers. The annual production of the 35 most actively traded commodities, the prices of which are daily in New York,
Chicago, Kansas City, London, Paris and Tokyo noted
is worth $ 2,2 trillion.

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The volume of money traded on the commodity exchanges is several times higher than at
all US stock markets. (The sales of the over-the-counter
Commodities trade are again many times higher than
the sales on the commodity exchanges.) And wherever there is one
There is a market, there you can also make profits. I know: The
Business pages of your daily newspaper, the financial magazines and
CNBC are mainly devoted to the stock market. If
believe the media and other stock market "experts" then
the stock bull is always just around the next corner
hidden. But millions of investors who started from 1998 to 2000
heard the gossip of the experts about the new economy,
have suffered tremendous losses in stocks and are always struggling
still starting to get their money back. The smart investor is looking for
looking for ways to buy valuable items cheaply and has with them
always keeping an eye on an impending dynamic change
that make this investment even more valuable
could.
Today both of these apply to raw materials. The bear market ended in 1998,
as prices approached their 20-year lows (which, adjusted for inflation, corresponded to prices during the Great Depression).

What does the stock market have to do with philosophy?

Philosophy, Politics and Economics (PPE) as a degree was conceived in Oxford in the 1920s, particularly at Balliol College. This combination was intended as an alternative to the
classical subjects and to prepare those who, as British officials, were to administer the Empire. Of course the British weren't at that time
it was clear that the Empire was already on its last legs. I know enough today
about university education to wonder if sending out many
self-important PPE graduates the decline of the Empire perhaps
has even accelerated.
The United Kingdom was the richest and most powerful country in 1918
World. If you looked at the world map, you saw only red. That
Empire was everywhere. Global trade flourished in the 19th century; it came
to integrate the world's economies, which opened up everywhere
- mainly for the benefit of Great Britain as a naval power. It was an exciting time in economic, social and artistic terms.

But all empires end up taking over and spending too much money.
In 1918 the British Empire was already corroding from within. The blood
and the money the Boer War had cost led to the same
international turmoil such as that triggered a century later by the incompetent politicians of a subsequent empire
UNITED STATES. Americans arbitrarily wasted lives and
Resources with pointless ventures in Vietnam and Iraq; she
overused the nation in every way: militarily, geopolitically
and economically - not to mention the moral aspect.

How do you become a successful investor?

My hometown Demopolis is in the middle of Alabama, where the Black
Warrior River flows into the Tombigbee River. It is the largest city in
Marengo County and is located in the middle of a region that parts
encompassed by Alabama, Georgia and Mississippi and historically as the Black Belt
is known. It is called that because there is rich and fertile arable land that has grown huge cotton plantations for 200 years
has promoted. Some of them survived the abolition of slavery, but none survived the weevil that killed the seed pods of plants.

When I was a little boy my friends and I dug this earth for bait, and then we spent the rest of the day fishing.
Catfish are omnivores and bite almost anything they can smell. You can smell almost anything too, and on a hot summer day
worms are easier to find than crickets. I was about eight years old
and we dug for worms in the garden of our house. Since made mine
Cousin Wade, about ten months older than me, a remark I made
Back then, I couldn't do anything at all, but it sticks in my mind to this day as if it were yesterday.
"If we continue digging, we'll get to China one day."
I already knew then that the earth was a sphere, but it wasn't until I had a globe available - I was an avid researcher even then - I was able to really appreciate the fact that it was right across the street
from Alabama, on the other side of the planet, the vast land mass of the People's Republic. Covered in dirt and sweat, I would actually
come out there again, if only I could muster the energy
to keep digging.

The rise of Asia

Decades have passed since then, my life is not that straightforward
got lost, but today I actually live on the threshold of China. and
i have two little daughters with blue eyes and blond hair who
Speak Mandarin as fluently as English.
How did I come to live in Singapore today? That too has something to do with it
Digging to do, albeit in a different way; not quite as tedious, however
not with less energy. It is the result of my tireless efforts to experience firsthand how the world works, the real world
Determine connections - and only for myself.
I've traveled around the world twice; once on a motorcycle, once in a car. I studied them from the ground up, got five in these
Recorded changing circumstances in more than 100 countries over the years. From my point of view, you can't tell the story and its consequences
understand from the armchair. You have to research the source. To me
has proven to be very rewarding; both personally and materially.
And it had to happen that I ended up here. Far away
from rural Alabama, instead in the largely Chinese-influenced one
Outpost at the southern end of the Malay Peninsula.
If history confirms anything, it is the ancient Greeks' view that change is the only constant. The spiritual father of this thought was the philosopher Heraclitus, who declared in the 6th century BC that it was impossible to go into the same river twice
rise. Success in life is measured by the ability to anticipate change. My move to Singapore was in response to my finding that the world was in the midst of a historic turning point
a dramatic change in framework conditions, characterized by a gradual loss of American leadership and, on the other hand, the rise of Asia.

I am writing this in the midst of a global financial crisis. Most politicians assure you that this crisis is a temporary phenomenon. Man
tells us things will get better I really want to do that
do not dispute. I consider it my job to tell you:
It is unlikely that things will happen during your lifetime
Duration will change for the better. The incredible debt loads in
many countries will massively change the way we all live and work. Many old institutions, traditions, political parties, governments, cultures, and even nations will go into decline, even
collapse or simply disappear - as has always been the case in times of political and economic upheaval.
For example, the investment bank Bear Stearns had existed for decades when it went down in 2008. The financial services firm Lehman Brothers, which collapsed that same year, had been in business since
operated for more than 150 years. The collapse of this has long been
established, global companies is an example of the changed
Conditions faced by many American institutions
see. Harvard, Princeton and Stanford may not yet know
but they could be on the way to bankruptcy. Museums, clinics and other institutions that we know and love face problems, and
we will see that many of them will disappear during the financial or economic upheavals ahead.
Some have called me an alarmist, a kind of modern Kassandra. But none of what I forecast for the future has to be
be a cause for panic or even just a surprise. The wind
the change is blowing, it is blowing from China and doing so in a predictable way
and way. We don't experience anything unusual; history only beats
a familiar site. And throughout human history, such situations of transition have created opportunities for observant people. So I'm extremely optimistic about many future developments.

Crises and transitions

Smart people went to London at the beginning of the 19th century. Hundred
Years later, the smart people moved to New York. And if you're smart at the dawn of the 21st century, head to Asia. In another hundred years, the cycle of change may lure people to any other place. At the end of the first millennium
all the smart people went to Cordoba, the prime of Islamic Spain, at that time the intellectual center and the most populous city
of the world.
I moved to Asia in 2007, and more importantly, I moved with mine
Children there. Knowledge of Asia becomes indispensable in their life
be for success. And speaking Mandarin will prove just as important worldwide as being able to be fluent in English is today
speak. In the 1920s and 1930s, power shifted and
Influence in the world from Great Britain to the USA. The loss of British leadership was compounded by a financial crisis and political mismanagement - something many people didn't do until 20 or 30 years later
recognized. Now power and influence are moving from the United States to Asia, the loss of American leadership is passed through the same
Forces accelerates, and these changes, too, go unnoticed by most people.
The transition towards Asia coincides with a second historical shift. Faced with a financial crash, the
World on the verge of transition, away from finance, a cyclical one
Shift away from financial corporations as a source of wealth. In
Throughout human history there have been phases in which the financiers have had the upper hand and others in which this role has been played by the producers of real goods: farmers, miners, energy suppliers or woodcutters. In the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s, before the big one
Bull market, little going on on Wall Street and in the City of London. That
will happen again. The Geldschefflers are experiencing a decline, and the
"Woodcutters and water carriers" will now inherit the earth, as it did in the
Book of Joshua is written.

I examined the historical forces responsible for the changes described. And because I lean towards the simple hypothesis that nothing lasts forever, I agree with someone else's comment
great thinker, Albert Einstein, who declared: “Only two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity. As for the universe, I'm not so sure. "
One thing we must not forget: Kassandra, the Trojan princess, the
got on everyone's nerves because she warned against bringing the wooden horse of the Greeks into the city, at least one thing has made her mind
impressed on people: She was right.
One of the goals of this book is to examine how we got to where we are now and how we prepare for the future
can. I'm going to share with you some of what I've learned from a life in finance, as an investor, and as an adventurer; Lessons,
that I saw in my youth and on the street, that made me
from the Black Belt to the other side of the globe to this city-state in
Southeast Asia have led. A lifelong journey in the course of which I took the
got to know the whole world.

The adventure in the markets

My adventure in the markets began in the spring of 1964.
I was just finishing my senior year at Yale and then basically got to Wall Street the same way I got to this elite university:
I stumbled in.

In high school, I was an avid member of the Key Club, one of
Student-run service organization and part of Kiwanis International. Until 1976 only boys were allowed to become members there. Membership in the Key Club from Demopolis was something of a big deal because
the local sponsor had decided to only accept five new boys per year. The year I was chairman, the Demopolis club won the World's Best Small Town Key Club award.
Back then, Yale University offered a four-year scholarship every year
a member of the Key Club International. It was through this scholarship that I heard
from Yale. Without the Key Club, I would never have applied.
I was absolutely certain that I was going to the only school I went to
next to Yale: the University of the South in Sewanee, Tennessee. The focus there was on the humanities and there was a close connection to the Episcopal Church. I was accepted into Sewanee shortly after I submitted my application
would have. Not until April or May, long after my father's Sewanee
After sending the mandatory $ 50 enrollment fee, I received a thick envelope from Yale. It showed that I was included
had been and the Key Club scholarship of $ 2000 each
Year received.
I was amazed.
I was 17 at the time and knew little about Yale other than university
was based in New Haven, Connecticut.
However, my parents knew enough to appreciate the importance of my acceptance into Yale. Both were college graduates. They had met at the University of Oklahoma, where they both met
Association of outstanding academics. My father studied petroleum engineering, my mother the humanities. It was one for her
tremendous thing that I would study at Yale. I still remember mine

Father said, “I'm a little worried that we'll see you in this bastion of
Delivering liberalism in the north. ”But in reality they were
and my mother very enthusiastic. My father's joy grew later
a little subdued because he didn't get the $ 50 back that
he had sent to Sewanee. In 1960 in Demopolis, $ 50 was a lot
Money. It's still a lot of money today, but then it was worth about five times what it is today.
I was the oldest of five brothers and one of fewer than 50 students in my high school year. Soon I showed them all the exaggerated Sense for my own importance, although ultimately I'm just lucky
would have had. Immediately I made fat Max, but my bloated one
Self-esteem should be short-lived. It soon dawned on me: Oh
no, I have to go to Yale now. And suddenly I got scared because I was
knew I was overwhelmed. What will i do now?
On my way to Boston for the Key Club National Convention that summer, I got off the train in New Haven and went to the admissions office in Yale. I wanted to know why I was accepted. I
hoped by asking this question I would get some idea of ​​what to expect and what these people expected of me. Of the
The head of the admissions office looked up my file and asked: “What do you mean? You did best in your class. In some subjects you got full marks. Even your average was almost
with the full number of points. "
Yes, but that was in Demopolis. My God, I thought to myself, these people hold up
me to be intelligent and believe that i know something.

The competition at the university

I felt completely unprepared to compete with graduates
prestigious preparatory schools from the northeast. So I drove
to Yale a little earlier and was willing to study harder than
all other. Then came an exam, as I can remember, and one of my classmates said he was going to study for five hours
prepare for it. "This exam is worth five hours of study," said
he. I found his reasoning very strange. My method has been for so long
to learn until I mastered the subject, and then just to be on the safe side
a little bit more. That was my method in all areas; my brothers and I inherited this discipline from our parents. There is no such thing as "enough". You just keep learning, working or researching; no matter what the task is.
I wish I could apply this trait to my children today. I wish I could call my parents and ask, “Which ones
You gave it to us? ”Call it discipline, call it diligence or work ethic - we all have them, my brothers and I. I know
not where that comes from. I wish I could identify the gene for it. I'm sure not the only one who appreciates the value of perseverance
appreciate. We all know smart people who are unsuccessful;
we all know talented people who are unsuccessful. Persistence makes all the difference.

The cost of tuition, board and lodging at Yale was at that time
$ 2300 annually. So with my $ 2000 scholarship, I missed it
$ 300 from the start - plus the cost of books
and other expenses. So I worked as a couple of hours a week
Temporary job in the dining room and took more part-time jobs at the university
whenever I was there.
Work experience in youth offers quantifiable benefits. She teaches
not only the value of money, but also helps in developing one's own identity. When you learn to manage your own finances,
you gain a tangible level of autonomy. I was financing my own car early on in life, long before I came to Yale. When I was six
When I was years old, my father taught me that “Money doesn't grow on trees
growing, ”and insisted that I pay for my baseball glove myself.

The best prognosis for a happy life

I went to Braswell Hardware in Demopolis and found one
Glove off, which was $ 4. I took it home and every Saturday I stuttered 15 cents from the shopkeeper, Cruse Braswell,
until the purchase price has been paid in full. Years later the dean quoted
a university study at a business school and told me that the best predictive factor for a happy adult life is a paid job
in adolescence.
All in all, I had a great time at Yale. I chose history
as a major and was the helmsman of the
Rowing teams (not more in the last year). I even got busy
little with acting and has had a few leading roles. The director one
of these performances was John Badham, graduating from 1961.
Can you imagine what a success his film Saturday Night Fever would have been had he remembered me and the lead role
given? But as much as I liked it, I didn't get into it too intensely; for the same reason I was no longer a helmsman in my final year of study. I preferred to spend the time studying. and
this discipline paid off. I wasn't as smart as everyone else,
but I graduated "cum laude".
And like so many other college graduates, I had no idea what to do next.

My applications were accepted by the Harvard School of Economics and the Harvard Law Schools and Yale Law Schools, but it could have been a medical school too, I was so excited to be able to choose between them all. What I
really wanted was to travel. As a boy I loved Dickens'
Read Pickwick Papers. The gentlemen of the Pickwick Club and their strange adventures may have helped develop my wanderlust
played a role. Even then, at the age of 21, I knew that simply moving - in my case from rural Alabama to a famous and respected college 1000 miles from home - was an important part of my education. That opened my eyes
and I learned a lot from it.
"And what do they know about England who only know England?" Wrote
Rudyard Kipling in The English Flag.

From Yale to investment

I always had the feeling that I didn't quite fit in with a lot of people at Yale,
because they had traveled a lot. It has always been my passion, more
to know and see of the world. I had mine a few years ago
then girlfriend Janet Corley told of this longing. "I am
16 years old, "I complained," and I really haven't been anywhere. "The worldly experienced Janet showed me her sympathy:" I'm 16 and have been to many
Places, ”she said. “I've been in Birmingham, in Mobile, in Montgomery, in
Tuscaloosa ... "
To broaden my horizons, I applied for various overseas scholarships. When people came on campus, the graduates for
were looking for their company, I already had an academic scholarship
from Yale to study philosophy, politics and economics at Balliol College, Oxford. That was my chance to go abroad
to go, and offered the added benefit of having been two more years now
Had time to decide what to do with my life.
(And secretly I had the fantasy of taking part as the helmsman in the legendary boat regatta between Oxford and Cambridge.) I was
already very eager to leave. Now all I needed was a job
for the summer.

Dominick & Dominick Inc., one of the oldest private investment firms in
In the USA, Yale was looking for new employees on a massive scale. she was
one of several companies with which I arranged job interviews on campus. I didn't have much success with the other companies, but I got on really well with Joe Caccioti from Dominick & Dominick. He had grown up on the streets of the Bronx and
had made it to Harvard somehow; I was in the farthest province
Grown up in Alabamas and somehow made it to Yale. we
seemed to have a lot in common with one major exception: Dominick & Dominick were looking for full-time employees.
"I can't get a full-time job with you," I told him. "But in
I would love to work for you in the summer. "
Dominick & Dominick, founded in 1870 and one of the senior members
The New York Stock Exchange, as a rule, did not turn up every spring
up at Yale to look for temporary workers for the summer. For some reason - probably at Joe's insistence - she did
Company an exception in my case, and in the summer of 1964 I started at
Wall Street to work.

Departure to Oxford

When I left for Oxford in the fall, I knew exactly what I was for
wanted to do the rest of my life. Before I went there, all I knew about Wall Street was that it
was somewhere in New York and that something bad happened there in 1929
was. I didn't know there was a difference between stocks and bonds, much less what that difference was. I had no clue about currencies or commodities. I doubt I knew then that the price of copper was rising in those markets
and sank.

That first summer at Dominick & Dominick, I worked in the
Research department and answered telegraphic questions from brokers:
Does General Motors pay a dividend, and if so, how much? I bloomed
on when I was digging up information. I also worked in the trading floor where the company acted as a market maker for various stocks that weren't
were listed on the New York Stock Exchange. It was about
OTC trading in the time when the NASDAQ did not yet exist. I learned
a lot about how the transaction based markets really work.
Once the executive board member asked me where I went to school. I replied that I had been to Yale. He said: "Well, we don't want too many red-bellies and tiger cubs here."
he meant the Harvard and Princeton graduates. When I met him, I took the opportunity to ask whether I should study economics.
He said, “They won't teach you anything useful there. Come
over here, sell soybeans empty just once, then you will learn a lot more
about the markets as if you were wasting two years studying. "

Working on WallStreet

It was an exciting summer. I saw the world the way I saw it
had never seen. Suddenly my studies of history and
of current events more than theoretical exercises - you were from
practical value. My passion for getting to know the world now had
a purpose. As a history student, I found it fascinating to learn how
the markets have been influenced by global events. But especially:
For the first time in my life, I really realized the predictable
How global events have been influenced by markets.
I realized that everything was connected. I learned that one
Revolution in Chile influenced the price of copper; consequently also the prices
for electricity and houses - all prices around the world. That worked
out on everyone, even homeowners in Toledo. I also learned: if
one was able to predict a revolution in Chile, could
you can afford a pretty good life.
That summer I discovered my future. Indeed, on Wall Street, I was paid to indulge my passion for research.

And I would be paid a lot if I did it right. On the wall
Street, I was rewarded for doing what I love to do. It was
the first of two summers with Dominick & Dominick, and I knew immediately that after my stay at Oxford I would study law. I wouldn't go to a business school. And so fast
I would go back to work on Wall Street as much as possible.

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