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Experts' surplus instead of specialist deficit: VDI ruled back

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For years, the Association of German Engineers has warned the experts, but now it does not exist. Apparently the reaction to media reports as here in the blog.

Skills shortage

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Simone JansonSimone Janson, German Top20 blogger, Appearances in ARD, occasionally articles for WORLD, TIME, WIWO, t3n, W & V, makes Best of HR - Berufebilder.de & HR communication.


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Media reports & payment games

Last year I was using the subject in one ARD report to see, Only last week I was in the Wirtschaftswoche on the subject of professional deficit deficit, and the discussion & facts on the subject again rolled up.

Already 2010 predicted the German Chamber of Commerce and Industry that until 2015 almost 50 percent of Company would expect a shortage of skilled workers. Likewise, 2012 also announced studies by Forsa or Kienbaum.

Mass withdrawals from the VDI

And according to the Association of German Engineers in Germany even 80.000 engineers are missing. This figure has been calculated by the VDI by multiplying the number of posts notified to the Federal Agency for Employment by seven. Reason: According to a survey of 2009, only every seventh place of the employment agency is also reported.

The absurdity of such numbers was repeatedly pointed out - by various experts who appeared in said ARD broadcast, by author Martin Gaedt and also always from us here in the blog and in media like world or economic week.

Yes, there was even one large-scale action, which called for the general withdrawal from the VDI.

VDI rowed back

The VDI was extremely unimpressed, almost arrogant. Stoisch was repeatedly explained that one must expect in any case with a skilled labor force deficit.

And now that: the VDI is rowing back - but of course he does not admit it. Suddenly there is even talk of an engineer surplus instead of a shortage. Thus in a contribution of the FAZ Michael Schwartz, Head of Strategy and Communication at VDI, quotes the following:

On the one hand, the drop-out rate in the engineering sciences fell from 45 percent to 35 per cent within two years. On the other hand, advertising for women had paid off. In technical professions, they are still subordinate to their male counterparts. But their share is growing slowly. And in the medium term, it is noticeable that a year ago two high school graduation years completed the school and began a study. Therefore, a large number of young engineers will probably be pushing into the labor market in five years' time.

From lack to surplus

So the constant media reports on the topic have not passed so completely without a trace at the VDI. It seems so. But of course they would not admit it.

So we sum up: No huge technical deficit of the engineers, which is the economic center of Germany. Not even a gap. Instead, suddenly a skilled labor force in the IT. But I already wrote about it in the Wirtschaftswoche.

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  10. Uwe Borchert


    there are still some important facts about the "statistical" recording of the data. These lead to an extreme distortion of the collected data.

    On the one hand, the vacancies in the various job exchanges of ZA / PV are dominated. These in turn write so-called general advertisements. These are job advertisements for so-called structural units. These are simply only placeholders in databases in order to be able to present the desired candidates without an invitation to bid in case of an incoming request. However, the number of applicants thus provided is negligible. There are no real jobs behind these ads. Similarly, normal employers switch HR image ads. These are pure advertising ads, behind which also no place stands. These ads make up to 90% of all ads, sometimes more. Therefore, the number of vacancies is much too high. There is probably only 1 / 10 of the places marked.

    Another problem is the registration of the unemployed. Typically, these are counted first in the last professional environment. Had to drive the engineer taxi or the chemist hamburger hamburger to bridge a doldrums on the labor market, he does not appear in the figures of the BA in his learned profession. At the latest when slipping into ALG-II is only a helper registered as a target worker. And only the unemployed are counted according to SGB-III, which is less than one third of all real unemployed without or with only a small pocket money as income. Even so, there are very likely at least three times more unemployed with the respective qualification, as the BA specifies. But since the procedure of the BA and the jobcenter with regard to the target profession is very individual and intransparent, I can not estimate at what quota of the undercover one then in the end arrives.

    And if that is not enough, the BA offers information about the academic professions. On the one hand, the annual number of graduates and, on the other hand, the number of job-related jobs required by the SV. According to this, the length of time spent working in most MINT subjects is only a few years. Source:

    Good education - good opportunities The labor market for academics

    After all, the engineers are looking for something around the 10 years, instead of the required almost 40 years until retirement. For physicists, physicists, chemists and biologists as a whole, this is already under 2 years ... According to the Beverigde curve one would expect 20 suitable applicants to one place in the latter group.

    Specialist defenses look different! And quite apart from this: With at least 5 years (academic) education is according to the conventions known to me already expert. Specialists have at least 3 but under 5 years of training.

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  15. Arwed Röhrdanz

    Why should the VDI make an exception?

    History has taught us one thing: not every information is correct. Or have people already forgotten what Walter Ulbricht said? "No one plans to build a wall!" I think it has something to do with your blog and your media presence, dear Mrs. Janson. Keep it up!

    Yours sincerely from Stralsund
    Arwed Röhrdanz

    • Simone Janson

      Thanks for the comment!
      Overall, the media reporting on the subject of professional deficit has changed a bit, as opposed to the time when we started with the subject in the blog, the overall tonality has become more skeptical. Many players play a role here, something the DIW, the book of Mr. Gaedt - and also REFERENCES R.

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    .. or

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