Experts' surplus instead of specialist deficit: VDI ruled back

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For years, the Association of German engineers before the Skills shortage warned, now it suddenly does not exist. Apparently the reaction to media reports like here in the blog.

Skills shortage

Here writes for you:

Simone Janson Simone JansonSimone Janson is publisher, German Top20 blogger and Consultant for HR communication.


Media reports and number games

Last year I was using the subject in one ARD report to see, Only last week I was in the Wirtschaftswoche reported on the topic of skills shortages and rolled up the discussion and facts on the subject once again.

Already 2010 predicted the German Chamber of Commerce and Industry that until 2015 almost 50 percent of Company would expect a shortage of skilled workers. Likewise, 2012 also announced studies by Forsa or Kienbaum.

Mass withdrawals from the VDI

And according to the Association of German Engineers in Germany even 80.000 engineers are missing. This figure has been calculated by the VDI by multiplying the number of posts notified to the Federal Agency for Employment by seven. Reason: According to a survey of 2009, only every seventh place of the employment agency is also reported.

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The absurdity of such numbers was repeatedly pointed out - by various experts who appeared in said ARD broadcast, by author Martin Gaedt and also again and again from us Best of HR –® and in media like World or Business Week.

Yes, there was even one large-scale action, which called for the general withdrawal from the VDI.

VDI rowed back

The VDI was extremely unimpressed, almost arrogant. Stoisch was repeatedly explained that one must expect in any case with a skilled labor force deficit.

And now that: the VDI is rowing back - but of course he does not admit it. Suddenly there is even talk of an engineer surplus instead of a shortage. Thus in a contribution of the FAZ Michael Schwartz, Divisional Manager Strategy and Communication at VDI, quoted as saying: On the one hand, the drop-out rate in the engineering sciences fell from 45 percent to 35 per cent within two years. On the other hand, advertising for women had paid off. In technical professions, they are still subordinate to their male counterparts. But their share is growing slowly. And in the medium term, it is noticeable that a year ago two high school graduation years completed the school and began a study. Therefore, a large number of young engineers will probably be pushing into the labor market in five years' time.

From lack to surplus

So the constant media reports on the topic have not passed so completely without a trace at the VDI. It seems so. But of course they would not admit it.

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So let's summarize: Not a huge shortage of skilled workers at the engineers in Germany as a business location. Not even a gap. Instead, there is suddenly a shortage of skilled workers in IT. But I have already written about it in Wirtschaftswoche.

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  1. Surplus of skilled workers - Lars Strempel

    [...] Association of German Engineers corrects its figures and Deutsche Telekom dismisses its skilled workers / temporary workers because too [...]

  2. Interview with Sabine Hansen Peck, Board Member Amadeus IT-Group - 1/2: Shortage of skilled workers & personnel development | PROFESSIONAL PICTURES

    [...] very controversially discussed whether we even have a shortage of skilled workers, most recently the Association of German Engineers even rowed back. How are your […]


    RT @LVQ_Education: Specialist staff instead of # Specialist deficit? - Exciting contributionFw27M6J1CR via @SimoneJanson

  4. Revier gold

    RT @LVQ_Education: Specialist staff instead of # Specialist deficit? - Exciting contributionFw27M6J1CR via @SimoneJanson

  5. Christian Müller

    RT @LVQ_Education: Specialist staff instead of # Specialist deficit? - Exciting contributionFw27M6J1CR via @SimoneJanson


    Specialist staff instead of # Specialist deficit? - Exciting contributionFw27M6J1CR via @SimoneJanson

  7. MartinGaedt 44Questions

    The absurdity of such figures has always been pointed out - by various specialists such as author Martin Gaedt - Exciting contributionWmqwI2YFv6

  8. Thomas Kujawa

    act. Headline of the #HR News: Specialized personnel surplus instead of specialist deficit: VDI ... - Exciting contributionRIYQXQxN6g, see more - Exciting contributionH88sxxtE7e

  9. Uwe Borchert


    there are still some important facts about the "statistical" recording of the data. These lead to an extreme distortion of the collected data.

    On the one hand, the vacancies in the various job exchanges of ZA / PV are dominated. These in turn write so-called general advertisements. These are job advertisements for so-called structural units. These are simply only placeholders in databases in order to be able to present the desired candidates without an invitation to bid in case of an incoming request. However, the number of applicants thus provided is negligible. There are no real jobs behind these ads. Similarly, normal employers switch HR image ads. These are pure advertising ads, behind which also no place stands. These ads make up to 90% of all ads, sometimes more. Therefore, the number of vacancies is much too high. There is probably only 1 / 10 of the places marked.

    Another sticking point is the registration of the unemployed. Typically, these are first counted in the last professional environment. If the engineer had to drive a taxi or the chemist roasted hamburgers in order to bridge a doldrums on the job market, he no longer appeared in the BA's figures in his learned profession. At the latest when slipping in ALG-II as a target career only too happy helper registered. And only the unemployed according to SGB-III are counted, that is less than a third of all real unemployed persons without or with only a small pocket money as income. Therefore, there are probably at least three times more unemployed people with the respective qualifications than the BA indicates. But since the procedure of the BA and the job center regarding the target profession is very individual and intransparent, I can not estimate at which rate of the lower registration one arrives then in the end.

    And if that's not enough, there is information about the academic professions at the BA. On the one hand, the annual number of graduates and, on the other hand, the number of workplaces subject to social insurance contributions. As a result, the length of stay at work for most MINT subjects is only a few years. Source:

    Good education - good opportunities The labor market for academics

    As a result, the sought-after engineers remain at least something of the 10 years at work, instead of the almost 40 years to retirement. For physicists physicists, chemists and biologists as a whole are already under 2 years ... After the Beverigde curve would have to expect in the latter group about 20 suitable candidates for a job.

    Specialist defenses look different! And quite apart from this: With at least 5 years (academic) education is according to the conventions known to me already expert. Specialists have at least 3 but under 5 years of training.

    • Simone Janson

      Hello Mr. Borchert, many thanks for the reference.

  10. The talent workers

    VDI speaks suddenly of the specialist power surplus! - Exciting contributionsAe6i2FSPG We do not know if we should laugh or shake our heads :)

  11. Employour Blog

    Who would have thought it: from the # of experts to the surplus
    - Exciting contributionmKV6f5tyjA

  12. Andreas Dotzauer

    Probably no # lack of skilled workers: VDI row back via @berufebilder - Exciting contributionwnoLEaFAut #HR #Recruiting

  13. Uta K. Schlichte

    RT @Berufebilder: Surplus of skilled workers instead of shortage of skilled workers: VDI rowing back - - Exciting contributionrlV4Z0q71x

  14. Arwed Röhrdanz

    Why should the VDI make an exception?

    History has taught us one thing: Not all information is correct. Or have people already forgotten what Walter Ulbricht said? "Nobody intends to build a wall!" I think it has something to do with your blog and your media appearances, dear Ms. Janson. Keep it up!

    Yours sincerely from Stralsund
    Arwed Röhrdanz

    • Simone Janson

      Thanks for the comment!
      Overall, the media reporting on the subject of professional deficit has changed a bit, as opposed to the time when we started with the subject in the blog, the overall tonality has become more skeptical. Many players play a role here, something the DIW, the book of Mr. Gaedt - and also REFERENCES R.

  15. firm-job

    A surplus of skilled labor instead of a shortage of skilled workers: VDI rowing back: For years, the Association of German Engineers ... - Exciting contribution4xVHf1XHT2

  16. Kathrin Berger

    .. or

    • Berufebilder

      Thanks for the additions.

  17. Kathrin Berger

    Oer they have shared this report from report.münchen:

  18. Thomas Eggert

    VDI ranks back via BERUFEBILDER - Exciting contributionc2WWcEFHbc


    VDI ranks back via BERUFEBILDER - Exciting contributionX4n6rGbOYI

  20. Competencepartner

    VDI backs down: For many years now, the Association of German ... - Exciting contributionBTm2D138yF #Profile #Development

  21. Ulrich Goldschmidt

    RT @ SimoneJanson: surplus of skilled labor instead of shortage of skilled workers: VDI rowing back - - Exciting contributionaV0dop0VXA

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