{Study} How Trump's US Election Affects the Labor Market: Job Flight to Canada?


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This morning of Western European time, Donald Trump became the 45. President of the United States. His success in the election apparently triggered panic-like job reflexes in many Americans, which also manifested themselves in the labor market.

{Study} How Trump's US Election Affects the Labor Market: Job Flight to Canada? indee-job lucht-usa-election

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First shock after the election result

Overview

"For many Americans, the election result was a shock. The first impulse was the escape for many, "

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says Jed Kolko, ChefEconomist of the us job page Indeed. In fact, after the announcement of the election results, the Canadian Immigration Department collapsed. Months ago, "How to move to Canada" had been a popular Google search term.

Increased demand for jobs in Canada

Overview

But that's not all, of course, the many Canadians want to work in spe also somewhere. That's why we asked Indeed what the situation looks like. And indeed, on the side of Indeed today, there is a significant increase in demand from the USA to Canada.

Although there is always a certain transfer of workers from the US to Canada: in the hours after Trumps official election victory, Americans were looking ten times more for jobs in Canada than normally. Once again Jed Kolko:

Of course, it is much too early to say how the job search behavior will develop after the first shock. But the sudden rise shows: Many Americans were surprised by Trump's election victory and think about opportunities outside the country.

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How will the trend develop?

Overview

Now it remains to be seen how the job and migration trend from the USA to Canada will develop. In particular, the following questions arise:

  • How does Canada react to the sudden migrations of so many Americans?
  • How many people can and want to take Canada?
  • How many people are in the end actually changing?
  • Which jobs and industries do the Americans particularly ask?
  • Which jobs and industries, in contrast, are particularly sought after in Canada?
  • What qualifications are necessary?
  • Are other countries also eligible for migration?

One has to ask the question: is the USA now threatened by brain drain thanks to Trump? And why is it important for the labor market in particular that Germany should now set an example? {Study} How Trump's US Election Affects the Labor Market: Job Flight to Canada? post-election-exodus-hiring-lab-blog-charts_foreign-search

How to move to Canada?

Overview

One thing is clear: According to the analysis of the job board Indeed.com, the proportion of job seekers from the US to Canada began the election night from about 21.00 o'clock (East Coast time) suddenly rose rapidly - at a time, then, as it became clear that Trump would win the election.

At midnight, 2,7 percent of total US job search came from Canada - more than ten times the normal share for that time of day. This top job search, however, was only short-lived, because on Wednesday afternoon, she was almost back to normal levels.

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Job search from the US abroad: Permanently slightly increased

Overview

However, the analysis by Indeed also shows that the proportion of search for jobs abroad remained moderately above the pre-election level: On Thursday 28% more jobs were sought abroad than on the previous Thursday.

At weekends, the proportion of job seekers abroad was at times 25% above the level of the previous week. And compared to the period before the election, the increase remains permanently slightly higher.

{Study} How Trump's US Election Affects the Labor Market: Job Flight to Canada? post-election-exodus-hiring-lab-blog-charts_new-zeland-surge

Who benefits from job search? New Zealand in front of Canada

Overview

Since the site of the Canadian immigration authority collapsed in the election night, the neighbor in the north has so far received the greatest attention as possible migration goal. According to Indeed, Canada is the most popular destination for job hunting for US Americans abroad.

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But compared to normal job search patterns, the differences were not particularly for Canada, but for another country: New Zealand. From the election day to the Sunday evening (8.-13 November), the share of US search for New Zealand was more than four times the same day a week earlier (1.-6 November). Canada is only second in this ranking.

Ireland, Spain and Australia are also included in the Top5, followed by English-speaking countries such as the United Kingdom (despite Brexit) and South Africa, but also Switzerland, the Netherlands and, surprisingly, Italy. Germany is missing as well as countries, which typically receive many search activities from the USA like Mexico, Brazil or India.

{Study} How Trump's US Election Affects the Labor Market: Job Flight to Canada? post-election-exodus-hiring-lab-blog-charts_metro-table-high

Brain drain from the US?

Overview

The increase in job search overseas is due to different groups and strata: it affects university graduates as well as non-graduate students, as well as Milenials and Generation X members. But one big difference can be made: from the states and regions that favored Clinton, were increasingly finding job vacancies abroad.

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Indeed, Indeed had the job search from the 8. to 13. In US states and metropolitan areas, data from the last five weeks were compared in November: In states that have already had a large number of foreign job searches, they once again increased by the factor 0,24, in others even by 0,30.

Jobexudus of the educated?

Overview

Amongst the major metropolitan areas, which typically have a high proportion of foreign job searches, the search for jobs abroad was strongest in Durham, New York City, Austin and Seattle - all more leftist, highly educated metropolitan areas. The expansion of job search abroad after the elections, by contrast, was minimal in Houston and Los Angeles.

Among the major metropolitan areas, which typically have a modest share of foreign job search, demand was strongest in Madison, Wisconsin, Albuquerque, NM, and Portland, Oregon.

{Study} How Trump's US Election Affects the Labor Market: Job Flight to Canada? post-election-exodus-hiring-lab-blog-charts_metro-table-moderate

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Conclusion: Germany has to set signs

Overview

However, it is unlikely that a mass exodus of educated workers will come from abroad - and the German labor market also appears to benefit only moderately from this demand, if at all. Incidentally, data for the Silicon Valley should be available soon.

This shows that, especially in the course of the US elections, it is sensible for the German labor market to improve its image on an international level in order to be attractive to IT professionals who are willing to take part in the process of change. German policy has set important signs in the past and can further improve this image.


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