From the author:
The megatrends of the future
The intelligence services of the US have deepened this question and the difficult feat has tried to look to the future, 2030, to be more specific.
Every four years, the National Intelligence Council (NIC) compiles its "Global Trends" report based on various variables. The so-called megatrends are not really unknown: the rapidly increasing world population, resource scarcity, the loss of political power in the Western world, the growth of the global middle class combined with the empowerment of individuals.
The game changer
The strategy report combines these megatrends with so-called "game changers", groundbreaking disruptive trends, as well as technical advances such as "interfaces between the human brain and powerful computers," and makes political analyzes of them.
In their report, the intelligence agents have developed various possible scenarios that consider the consequences of changing the global force game. In 2030, China will be the biggest economic power. Finally - one would almost want to add, since this topic stands for years on the title pages.
Struggle for economic advance
But China can not dethrone America, the NIC continues, as the US continues to participate in the global showdown and even remains victorious, as "Primus inter pares", first among equals.
They also assume that other regional heavyweights such as Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, Turkey and even Colombia will become increasingly economic and eventually political. At the expense of an aging Europe, which will have to fight harder and harder to maintain its standard of living.
The A-polar world
So will we live in a multipolar world? Not really! The world of tomorrow will be "a-polar", that is to say without clearly dominating power. Is it good?
Rather, the right question is: Can a seven-billion-person humanity deal with anarchy? Will humanity finally understand that many important global issues need a global and integrated policy? You can not guarantee that, but we'll see.
Tasks of the Spin Doctor
One thing is for sure: our world is full of surprises. However, the spin-doctor's commissioner may not be a surprise, so he has to take into account the consequences of social, economic and political changes that are happening while he is anticipating the effects of the changes that are occurring.
In parallel, the spin doctor must quickly track down and interpret the small signals that announce the coming changes. It is, to say the least, a bit stressful: the Spin Doctor is almost never in the present, his mind is always busy with what happened and what could happen.
Keep an overview and create clarity
And yet he has to keep track and clarity, speed out of the matter and avoid the helpless trailing. In fact, it is not easy because the events are more numerous, and worse, faster and faster. But "do not shoot the messenger!", You should never blame the messenger for the bad news.
The new media landscape and especially the live TV coverage of news channels such as CNN, France24, NTV and so on certainly carry their responsibilities and play a central role in this overall acceleration. But this acceleration, like the diminution of space, is the direct product of globalization.
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