What do the VDI say?
The Association of German Engineers made it clear again in a press release that in Germany in the near future continues to be expected with a strong shortage of skilled workers. Document: The number of vacancies in November 2010, incidentally contradict those Karl Brenkes blatantly.
It works a little for me like: “What do I care about the statistics from last month. We'll get him the shortage of skilled workers - but now really! ” In detail, it reads like this:
Even in November 2010, the shortage of engineers further aggravated. According to the VDI / IW engineer monitor, some 47.000 engineers were missing. The increase of just under eight percent compared to the previous month resulted in part from the increase in vacancies on 70.000. At the same time, engineering unemployment fell again slightly in November by two percent on 23.600. 15.800 and thus the most vacancies were again in Baden-Württemberg, followed by 13.600 vacancies in North Rhine-Westphalia and almost 10.000 in Bavaria. With 24.500 jobs, the largest number of job vacancies was announced again for mechanical and automotive engineers, for electrical engineers 15.700 and for civil engineers 12.300. For the profession of electrical engineers this means an increase of almost 5 percent compared to October 2010, compared to the same month last year even by 41,4 percent.
Where do the figures come from?
Incidentally, the figures for this report are calculated by the Institute for German Business. At Karl Brenke, the numbers look completely different - for example, the machine and vehicle construction engineers mentioned by the VDI:
Here, in October 2010, Brenke could only make 3.366 vacancies. And 2008, before the economic crisis it was also only 5.018 (see page 7 in the study).
Can this be calculated?
As this strong discrepancy comes to explain brand expert Brenke also right himself - namely on page 4 his study (which is here as PDF) - namely, on the one hand from a calculation error and, secondly, because not all registered vacancies actually are free:
The Institute of German Business (IW) has tried to use a combination of business surveys and data from the Federal Employment Agency to capture the supply and demand of engineers, for example. So it is on the basis of a relatively small sample raised, how many Company to report their vacancies for engineers to the Federal Employment Agency. On this basis, a factor is calculated which extrapolates the number of vacancies reported at the employment service to reflect the total demand for engineers. Finally, the factor seven was used - the number of open engineering positions at the Federal Agency was multiplied by seven.
What is the problem?
Karl Brenke then explains why the process is problematic:
It is, however, not permissible to simply calculate the vacancies using a multiplier. In the economy as a whole, only those vacancies are relevant for the measurement of a specialist need which arise when a company wants to increase its staff or because employees are to leave and be replaced. However, vacancies are often only attributable to changes in the company. For example, an employee who is still working in the company has announced a change in employment and has thus triggered a vacancy notice. This employee is now applying to a job posting at another employer, which has been switched because an employee wants to change his or her job. Several vacancies have been created in this way, but no additional workplace and not even a vacancy due to the departure of an employee from the working life.
I would like to see that VDI and IW, if they differ from one another, are concerned with Brenkes' study critically and discuss their theses. The study of the DIW to tozeken and to continue as simple as before, has little transparency and credible. An open discussion would be more conducive to the topic!
Or do you think that this short contribution with a few loosely dropped examples can invalidate a whole study? I think this is a little lean and little meaningful. The Institute for German Business and the VDI is apparently of a different opinion.
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